“I think that what I did is just a slightly more algorithmic, large-scale, and machine-learning-based version of what everyone does on the site. ”
I think this is correct. US consumers are still repairing their household balance sheets which have been distorted due to super easy credit.
From the comments:
“The United States economy is like a poker game where the chips have become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and where the other fellows can stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit runs out the game will stop.”
-Marriner Stoddard Eccles, Beckoning Frontiers (1951)
The little country that could.
When presented with a bad deal by the international community and the banks, Iceland said, “No thanks” and demonstrated the validity of the Austrian view that a short sharp shock is preferable to a long drawn out soft landing.
via Revolutions: Because it’s Friday: How to board planes faster.
The Steff en method … orders the passengers in such a way that adjacent passengers in line are sitting in corresponding seats two rows apart from each other (e.g., 12A, 10A, 8A, 6A, etc.). This method trades a small number of aisle interferences at the front of the cabin, for the beneﬁt of having multiple passengers stowing their luggage simultaneously.
Via the Revolutions Blog, The Luck and Skill of Scrabble. If you play enough Scrabble, you probably know these conclusions already:
- The blank is worth about 30 points to a good player, mainly by making 50-point “bingo” plays possible.
- Each S is worth about 10 points to the player who draws it.
- The Q is a burden to whichever player receives it, effectively serving as a 5 point penalty for having to deal with it due to its effect in reducing bingo opportunities, needing either a U or a blank for a chance at a bingo and a 50-point bonus.
- The J is essentially neutral pointwise.
- The X and the Z are each worth about 3-5 extra points to the player who receives them. Their difficulty in playing in bingoes is mitigated by their usefulness in other short words.
Banks are sitting on reserves because they know how many dogshit mortgages they sold and they are aware they will not get bailed out a second time if they don’t have the reserves to cover their loan losses.
As noted in the comments the two metrics to watch are the default/foreclosure rate and the unemployment rate. Seems you could model by bank when they are most likely to need reserves when their variable rate loans reset, pushing borrowers into trouble.
Check that. Variable rate loans aren’t going to reset higher in the current near-zero interest rate regime. Banks are holding reserves indefinitely since they don’t know when interest rates will rise again and they don’t want to get caught flat-footed when they do rise again.